Somali Republic withered and shrunken into an anarchic domicile due to the despotism command of Siyad Bare and his cluster of thugs in 1991. Fortuitously, the Northern part of the country restructured its political system, and referred back to its history of British Somaliland prior the amalgamation of the two regions.
Ill-advisedly, the Southern part of the very same country, what is vastly renowned Somalia collapsed once again same as the ash of a cremated dead body. This followed chieftains of clansmen puppets, who graft for their individual and tribal interests.
This resulted to turn the capital city of Somalia (Mogadishu) into clan-based fiefdoms. The political pandemonium created the seizure of the capital into the hands of Islamic extremism, which later prompted Ethiopia’s military intervention in 2006.
Most surprisingly, the international community, mainly the West and the Arab League supported this inferno from the beginning. But, their exertions became squandered by both the people of Somalia and their interest oriented leaders.
Since 2012, when the so called tribal chock-full and international sponsored government was installed in Somalia. The bedlam, instability and uncertainty tripled into a higher percentage. This year alone, more than 64 explosion took place in the capital Mogadishu, it is less than 60 days to count, let alone other targeted assassinations or tribal militia confrontations inside or outside of its premises.
No real suspect ever been imprisoned by the so called government, but they rather capture and detain the underprivileged, needy and neglected countrymen by labelling of ‘’Al-Shabab’’. Besides, there is no rule of law that protects the most vulnerable government hostages, and this is the voice that has not yet been heard by the international community.
This political backwardness stemmed to rescind the mission of the international community of one man one vote democratic elections in 2016. This impediment to progress dispirited the political anticipation of the nation state.
Every promise of the so called government nosedived, and the country revisited back to its inferno history in 1991. Analytically it is arduous to distinguish Mogadishu of the 1990s, and the current Mogadishu in 2016. The more support it gained from outside the less it develops inside, because of the weak allegiances of the Somali people and their tainted politicians, which is nothing more than to accumulate wealth from inside out.
On the other hand, even though the international community considers that Al-Shabab militia-men has been defeated by AMISOM, it is palpable that nothing is factual about the conjectures. Al-Shabab is every corner of the country, from Puntland to Juba administration, it also spread further into Kenya and more likely to advance elsewhere.
The international efforts to restore peace and stability to Somalia cost billions of US Dollars each year. In 1990s, the United Nations peacekeeping mission failed, it was a US-spearheaded mission. Once again, the world wholeheartedly supported Somalia to billions of US Dollars. This sustenance ended up with piracy and the creation of terrorism.
Assiduously, again the international community built one of the strongest peace missions of the world ‘’AMISOM’’ in 2007, by deploying more than 20,000 African troops to South and Central Somali regions. Finally, the mission led into the recognition of a permanent Central Government of 2012, with the worldwide support of financial and technical assistance.
Regrettably, the efforts turn out to be futile, due to the result of incompetence, incessant tribal hostility and the lack of nationwide commitment. 2016 is the election year, again the government of Somalia reiterated to keep the transitional political representation of 4.5 tribal politics.
The electoral package and the political representation of 4.5 was firstly initiated in ARTA Conference in 2000. This reassures 16 years of stagnation and political unproductivity. Therefore, I have the justification to say no progress has ever been made in Somalia for the last 25 years whatsoever, because with the help of the above evidences it can confidently be argued.
Furthermore, Government officials never continued to live inside Somalia, after their authorities collapsed, vanished or disbanded. The ARTA elected President Abdikasim now lives in Egypt, he was registered as an asylum seeker in Cairo. On the other hand, although Puntland claims peaceful, Abdillahi Yousuf preferred to request asylum in Yemen, before his death.
Whilst, Shiekh Sharrif lives in Kampala, Uganda. So as every Prime Minister, including most of the Members of the Parliaments as well as the Cabinet Ministers. But, they all have their pockets full of money, mainly the financial aid from the international community, which is an income-generating fund for politicians when it comes to earn a portion of money without hard-work.
Because, the political system is hostile in Somalia. Al-Shabab is financially strong to recruit more armed personnel, including members of the government officials. They can easily pass government checkpoints, airport security premises and any other targeted places. The Daallo Airline blast, or the future attempts to Turkish and other international jets and/or pre-planned operations to Embassies and Consulates are all possible with the presence of this pathetic government.
Al-shabab also cooperates with senior army commanders. For instance, El-Ade mission was not only Al-Shabab assault, government troops were also involved. It is awkward to kill more than 200 uniformed personnel in a war without the assistance of internal forces. In a confrontation, it is unacceptable to terminate 200 well equipped military personnel against AK-47 and hand-grenades alone.
It is also astonishing that the President in need, who safeguarded by AMISOM troops to deliberately say ‘’ We have been winning for years and months but that El-Ade battle, we were defeated’’. It is obvious that his librettos will encourage Al-Shabab, and subsequently promote more attacks to AMISOM.
Al-Shabab invisibly operates inside Villa Somalia, and the House of the Parliament. This is not outlandish as President Sheikh Sharrif used to be their Commander in Chief, whereas Hassan Sheikh lived with them unharmed for 21 years prior his Presidency in Mogadishu, while many more were assassinated.
The deal between Hassan Sheikh and Al-Shabab broke soon after he was nominated as a President, but he has already arranged his big Villa Residence both in Turkey and Qatar and will departure soon after his term ends.
What needs to be mention here is; will the international support continuously remain the same? Because it is against what the liberal states stand for. The lift sanctions of the light arms resulted that Al-Shabab gained more dangerous weapons, because the Somali Government cannot keep out of its reach.
Al-Shabab diktats the country serenely without any disruption, as it gains support from the outside world by the name of Somali Federal Republic, it destabilised Kenya, whilst threatening Djibouti and Ethiopia. This is happening without the knowledge of the Western countries mainly the European Union and the United States. But the reality is, Mogadishu will remain riotous for more decades to come.
Mohamed Hagi Mohamoud.
Department of Politics and International Studies.
The University of Warwick.